Draftees: Where did they come from?

Patrick’s comment yesterday on the Aaron Johnson post regarding the QMJHL interested me.  He mentioned that someone in the front office seems to really like players from the Q, but they tend not to pan out.  Patrick also noted that the Q is regarded as the weakest of the three Canadian junior leagues.  While the latter statement is not easily quantifiable by me, the first is pretty easy to view.

What I can say regarding the competitiveness of the three leagues is this: since the creation of the QMJHL (the youngest of the three) in 1969, here is the breakdown of Memorial Cup champions by league.

• Western Hockey League: 17
• Ontario Hockey League: 14
• Quebec Major Junior Hockey League: 8

So on a very base level of judging competitiveness, Patrick is correct that the Q is the lesser of the three leagues.  (Stat freaks and fans of the Q, please note that this is a broad statement made for the purposes of moving on to the next point and not intended to indict the Q in any way.  Q fans especially may want to keep reading.)  Moving on…

In the last seven years (junior league information was not readily available on NHL.com for draftees in 2000 and I’m lazy to take the five minutes it would require to complete the results), the Columbus Blue Jackets have drafted 71 players.  Here is a breakdown of the top five leagues/countries and the average draft position of a player selected by the CBJ from that league.

1. Ontario Hockey League: 13 players, average pick of 113
2. Quebec Major Junior Hockey League: 11 players, average pick of 102
3. Western Hockey League: 9 players, average pick of 129
4. Russia: 7 players, average pick of 131
5. Various high school leagues: 6 players, average pick of 155

This does give me a little insight.  Columbus drafts players from the Q at a higher average position than any other group.  But this also includes a slew of players who very likely were not expected to make the NHL (I’m just rambling so I sound smart, you can quit reading at any time), so I decided to only include picks in the first three rounds (1-90) and reevaluate.  I know that with the limited history of the Blue Jackets drafts this will not be a great statistical sample, but I don’t care.  The results?

1. Ontario Hockey League: 7 players, average pick of 50
2. Quebec Major Junior Hockey League: 5 players, average pick of 23
3. Western Hockey League: 3 players, average pick of 42

The OHL had the most players selected in the first three rounds (led by Rick Nash at #1 overall in 2002), but the Q led in the more important area.  Players selected from the Q in the first three rounds have an average draft position of 23.  I have to say, this shocked me.  If you take Aaron Johnson out of the equation (he barely squeaked into the top 90 at #85 in 2001), the average draft position for QMJHL players is an astonishing 7.25!

With such a small data set, I’m required (by law!) to make very broad brush strokes to paint my picture.  So what’s the problem that Patrick’s indicating with the Jackets using so many high draft picks on Q players?  It probably has to do with the fact that none of them are stars, and only one (Pascal Leclaire) has shown that he might be a regular NHL’er. 

Immediate disclaimer: In the 2006 Entry Draft, the Jackets selected Derick Brassard (at #6) from the Q and in 2007 they selected Jakub Voracek (at #7) from the Q.  Both of these players are too young to pass judgement.

Still, that leaves Alexandre Picard (#8 in 2004), Pascal Leclaire (#8 in 2001), and Aaron Johnson (#85 in 2001) as Q alumni who have played with the big club.  Leclaire shows flashes of extreme promise, but has been unable to stay healthy long enough to know for sure.  Picard has done well in the AHL, but has struggled mightily at the NHL level.  And finally there is Johnson, who never quite found a permanent spot on the club and was not extended a qualifying offer.  He will be an unrestricted free agent on July 1.

Many would argue rightfully that it takes at least five years to properly evaluate a draft.  I don’t disagree, I just dont have that much data to work with.  So some of you who have gotten this far may be asking yourself, “what the hell is Drew’s point?”

I’m glad you asked.  One line in particular in Patrick’s comment sparked this whole mini-research project for me, and it was probably the line that contributed the least to his point (correct me if I’m wrong, Patrick).  It was:

Someone in the organization likes this league above the others.  It worked for Sidney Crosby and not so well for Alex Picard.

I understand his point, but I wanted to make a rebuttal.  There are plenty of good NHL players who have come from the Q.  There have been eight players elected to the Hockey Hall of Fame, including Mario Lemieux, Ray Bourque, and Patrick Roy.  Plenty of current NHL’ers played junior hockey in the Q, including Sidney Crosby, Brad Richards, Vincent Lecavalier, Manny Fernandez, Ales Hemsky, Daniel Briere, and Roberto Luongo.

Sure, the Blue Jackets haven’t exactly mined the best there is out of the Q.  But they really haven’t cherry picked any of the other leagues, either.

So what did you learn from this post?  Probably to avoid any posts I make that started out with, “So and so said something the other day that made me think…”

Thanks for stopping by the End of the Bench.  Come back soon.

A roster spot opens

Aaron Portzline reports in today’s Dispatch that the Blue Jackets will not be extending a qualifying offer to defenseman/winger Aaron Johnson.  The 24-year old Johnson is a restricted free agent.

“It was a tough decision,” Howson said. “But (Johnson) was going to get a one-way contract in an arbitration hearing, and we just weren’t comfortable with that decision.”

Hockey for Dummies Alert: As Portzline explains, a one-way contract would enable Johnson to make NHL money even if he was playing in the minor leagues.  Many players who are on the NHL bubble (frequently shuttle back and forth between the NHL and minor league hockey) are issued two-way contracts that have different salary levels depending on which team (major or minor) owns the contract at the time.  One-way contracts are frequently awarded to established players who are not expected to spend time in the minors. 

Drew’s Analysis: Though Johnson did see time in 61 games, anyone who has watched him play would have a tough time arguing that he was an established NHL’er.  With the Jackets looking to get better and the salaries of Fedorov and Foote cramping the cap a bit, it’s no surprise that Howson and Co. are making changes.  By all accounts Aaron was a likeable guy and a hard working player, but that only gets you so far.  His talent level hasn’t risen to the point where he’s worthy of guaranteed money, and in this day and age with a salary cap in place, that’s enough to be shown the door.  It’s not any big loss for the club, especially with Mark Methot playing good minutes as he did at the end of the season.

In other news: Other restricted free agents in the Jackets organization that were tendered qualifying offers: centers Alexander Svitov and Andrew Murray, left wingers Curtis Glencross and Joakim Lindstrom, right winger Steven Goertzen, and defenseman Ole-Kristian Tollefsen.  Also, RFA right winger Jaroslav Balastik was not extended an offer.

Coming up: Here at the End of the Bench, I’ll be wrapping up the season-ending Spotlight Series in the next few weeks (hopefully very soon).  The contract of Sergei Fedorov is a figurative noose around the team’s neck right now.  I’ll be interested to see if there will be a buy-out in the near future.  Based on the lack of noise on this topic in the last week, I’m guessing it won’t happen.  And if it does happen, I’d suspect it would be in the next two days before the free agency signing period begins on July 1st.

Thanks for stopping by the End of the Bench.  Come back soon.

Spotlight on: Defensemen

We’re almost finished with our “Spotlight” series here at EOB, where we give our opinions on the players’ pros and cons, a little bit of salary info (if we can find it) and any other tidbits we find interesting. Today, the blueliners get the heat lamp.DefenseAdam Foote
– Age – 35
– Status – Signed through 2008
– Pros – The Blue Jackets captain is still a good defenseman in his own zone, even at his advanced age (and if Chris Chelios is any indication, he doesn’t have to slow down for quite a few years). Foote seems to be a quality leader, one who will be tasked with transforming the team attitude to being a winning one. Of anyone that is currently on the team, he is the one person who could get this done in my opinion.
– Cons – As noted over at Tom Benjamin’s place upon hearing of his signing with Columbus, the Adam Foote of the Avalanche and the Adam Foote of the Blue Jackets are inherently different players. Though he may help in the short term, it will remain to be seen if this signing (big money for older player, kind of sounds familiar) will pay dividends. Foote is not a big offensive force, but he didn’t get the money to score goals.
– If I were GM/Coach – Adam Foote is the captain on a team that needs stability. Unless a great deal rears its ugly head, I’d keep Foote wearing the “C” until his contract expires. At that point, it will probably be time to shake hands and part ways.

Bryan Berard
– Age – 29
– Status – I’m unsure of Berard’s contract status, but I’m pretty sure he’s back this year.
– Pros – Berard is what I (relative hockey novice) like to call a “puck confidence” guy. He’s not afraid to handle the puck for longer than a few seconds. This seems to help increase team puck possession and create a balanced offensive attack, something the Jackets have historically been poor at doing. Brian is a decent power play quarterback who is not afraid to shoot the puck.
– Cons – For a defenseman, Berard is merely an adequate defender. He must be paired with a more responsible blueliner to guard against too many odd-man rushes from the other team.
– If I were GM/Coach – Berard is a decent talent, especially in the offensive zone. I don’t think he is a long term answer for the Jackets, but I’d keep him for now. There is always a market for a Brian Berard type of player.

Duvie Westcott
– Age – 28
– Status – I’m unsure of contract length, but Westcott is signed for this upcoming season at least. – Pros – The most underrated defenseman on the team, by far. Westcott has good skating ability, puck confidence, excellent defensive skills, a heavy shot, etc. Yeah, I’m pretty high on this guy. A Masterson Trophy finalist this year, I predict that Westcott will be the best defenseman in the Blue Jackets system in less than two years.
– Cons – Westcott seems to be a walking case of bad luck. He’s been hampered in the past few years by freak injuries (which is probably why nobody outside of Franklin County has heard of the guy), and he has an incredibly difficult time finding the back of the net.
– If I were GM/Coach – My desk blotter would have 100 sticky notes reminding me that Westcott is the key to my team making the playoffs. Duvie was born to play in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Keep him at all costs, it is not possible to overpay him. (Maybe this is why I’m not a GM/Coach???)

Rostislav Klesla
– Age – 24
– Status – Signed through 2010.
– Pros – Columbus’ first pick in the 2000 Entry Draft, Klesla is finally showing glimpses of being a top 4 defenseman. He has become more responsible in his own zone, and is capable of throwing his weight into some big hits.
– Cons – Despite his improved overall play, Rusty still has moments where he looks like a lost little puppy. I’m tempted to write these off as tentative play due to injury recovery, but I can’t be sure yet. He still has a penchant for pinching in a little more often than recommended (though not nearly as much as a few years back).
– If I were GM/Coach – The jury is still out (for me) on Klesla. He’s been in my doghouse for years (much to the chagrin of Mrs. EOB, who thinks he’s a good-lookin’ dude who should get a free pass!), and this year showed some signs of respectability. I think he could be a top 4 very soon (and apparently, so does the real CBJ brass), but I’d like to see him perform over an 80 game season before I pass judgement. I don’t think it’s a bad thing that he’ll be here for four more years.

Ron Hainsey
– Age – 25
– Status – Signed through at least this upcoming season.
– Pros – Another puck confidence guy on the CBJ blueline, Hainsey is also very quietly active in his own end. He led the team in plus/minus (at +13) this year, and has the skills to become a top 4 blueliner in no time at all.
– Cons – The one thing I would like to see is Ron take his physical game up a notch. He’s a big guy (6’3″, 215 lbs), and the CBJ could always use more physical bodies to wear down the opposition.
– If I were GM/Coach – I would lock Hainsey up for a few years when his contract is close to expiring. I would make him and Duvie the cornerstone of the Columbus blueline as they turn the corner to respectability.

Radoslav Suchy
– Age – 30
– Status – Unrestricted Free Agent
– Pros – A big, steady defensive defenseman (why does it always feel weird to write that?)
– Cons – Not particularly quick or offensive-minded.
– I were GM/Coach – Suchy is the kind of d-man that every team needs, but nobody wants to pay big bucks for. Unfortunately, the Jackets had a bit of money invested in him, which is why I would let him go. There are enough youngsters in the pipeline that will ably fill his spot.

Aaron Johnson
– Age – 23
– Status – Signed at least through the upcoming season
– Pros – A good skater with a mind towards the offensive end of the ice, Johnson is not afraid to throw his body around.
– Cons – Aaron hasn’t developed the puck confidence yet, but he’s working on it. He’s not a huge guy (barely topping 6′, just a shade under 200) so he’ll have to work for every inch of ice.
– I were GM/Coach – Johnson is still learning his position at the NHL level, so I’ll keep him around because he shows promise. If he’s still at the same point in two or three years, I’m sure that there will be someone to step up and fill his spot.

In a flash
Ole-Kristian Tollefsen is a young blueliner who is not afraid to get physical (we saw him in five games this year). He has some things to learn in his own zone, but I think that is typical of most young defenseman. I’ll look forward to seeing this guy on the Nationwide ice soon.

Up next, the goaltenders.

Also, I’ve updated the link list on the sidebar. I’ve added CasonBlog (a good Hurricanes weblog), Jes Golbez’s Hockey Rants (good eye on NHL and international hockey), and Behind the Jersey (a Red Wings fan who has a great Behind the Blog feature interviewing other hockey bloggers).

CBJ roster shifts as team gets back on ice

Bluejackets to hit the ice with a new face tonight

With the Olympics fading in the rearview mirror, the Bluejackets are on the road again in Denver looking slightly different. There will be Rick Nash and Adam Foote walking slightly heavy despite the lack of a medal around their necks, David Vyborny returning as the bronze-clad captain of the Czech team, and Mike Rupp returning from injured reserve. But the real personnel story of the day in Columbus deals with Rupp’s new fourth-line mate, Cam Severson. Severson, a 28 year old left winger with 33 NHL games under his belt was acquired March 1 from Calgary in a trade that saw defenseman Cale Hulse leave for the defending Western Conference champions.

This trade should tell CBJ fans a few things. First, it has been obvious since Rusty Klesla returned from injury that there was often an odd man out in the blueline rotation. Even with Bryan Berard out for two weeks with his bad back, there are still six quality defenseman currently up with the club. Tonight’s lines will likely be comprised of Foote/Klesla, Hainsey/Richardson, and Westcott/Suchy. When Berard returns in roughly two weeks, that would leave the Bluejackets with eight one-way defenseman contracts. The expendable piece would be Hulse. To fill his spot, Columbus recalled Aaron Johnson from Syracuse this morning. The second thing this says is that management is not ready to move Dan Fritsche, Mark Hartigan, or Stevie Goertzen up to the NHL for good. Fritsche could elevate to a second-line center someday, but in his injury-limited tenure with Columbus he has not played consistently enough to earn the ice-time a young center needs. Hartigan is currently tearing up the AHL (32G, 32A in 42 games) but has lacked that same scoring touch in his stints with the big club. Stevie Goertzen has tried to fill Tyler Wright’s shoes as a pest with an occasional goal, but has succeeded in being only a pest as he still looks for his first NHL goal. While Severson may be moved to Syracuse shortly for one of these players or another (Lindstrom, Motzko, etc.), I would look for this lineup to stick together if the CBJ can continue to play at their pre-Olympic level.

The last thing to look for regarding roster moves in the upcoming weeks is what will happen when Berard returns from the IR? EOB’s trusted sources (himself) say that Luke Richardson will be dangled as trade bait to a playoff bound team. Richardson is still a decent stay-at-home defenseman and could help a spotty defensive team (Vancouver?), but he is a big contract that the Bluejackets would probably like to get rid of while they can still get something for him. This would give playing time for Aaron Johnson and possibly OK Tollefson as well. Youth should be the main route traveled for Columbus. The organization has good young talent, and needs to take the right steps to properly develop these players.