Dose of Reality #80November 1, 2007
So, when does “it’s early” become “it’s too late”? Well, if history is any indication, many teams will have crossed that all-important line by Halloween.
This is from my post on October 16, 2007. We have just passed Halloween and the Blue Jackets have played 11 games and have 15 points. Only two teams have more points than Columbus, so has the team crossed that all-important line?
With their current record, the team is earning 1.36 points per game and that means 111 points for the season. I don’t think they will hit that number, but this is what I see. A team in the Western Conference needs to have 95 points to make the playoffs, although last year it was 96 points. With 71 more games left to reach 95 points, the Jackets need to play at 1.13 points per game to add to their 15 point total. Over the course of a season, a Western Conference team has to average 1.15 points per game. The Jackets haven’t crossed the “all-important line” but they are closer than a lot of other teams. Can they continue at this pace? The month of November looks a lot tougher than October, with three games against Detroit, and two each against Chicago, Nashville, and St. Louis I’ll take nine points in those nine games and hope for nine points in the five games that fill out the month. That would give them 18 points for November and a season total of 33 points in 25 games. That is a run rate of 1.32 points a game, more than enough to keep them in the hunt. Only six of the November games are at Nationwide, but two of them are with Detroit, and the way attendance has been so far, it will look like two Red Wing home games.
If you can come to any conclusions, it is that so far the team is keeping up its part of the bargain by playing hard every night. Will the fans keep up their part of the deal?